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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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